For over a century, the economic value placed on forested landscapes has been derived almost entirely from the commercial revenue associated with them: lumber, forage, minerals, and the commercial recreation business. The non-commercial values of natural intact forests were rarely incorporated into the economic dialogue. This was a serious and unfortunate oversight. Those non-commercial forest values - clean drinking water, healthy watersheds for fish and wildlife, recreational opportunities, scenic beauty, open space, and climate stabilization - are critical to the economic well-being of families in counties with substantial tracts of National Forest land. The Clinton Administration’s initiative to protect the remaining roadless land in National Forests from any new road-building, development or logging recognizes that these attributes are under increasing pressure and will only become more important in the new economy of the 21st century.

This study evaluated the likely economic impacts of protecting all of the inventoried roadless areas in Washington’s National Forests from logging and commercial development on rural areas, isolated communities, and small towns with a relatively high dependence on logging or forest products manufacturing for their employment and income. The study’s conclusions are both surprising and very positive for the health of Washington’s economy and wild forests.

The study focused on four areas of the state that contain, or are adjacent to, substantial National Forest land: five counties in the northeast, four counties in the southeast, five central Washington counties, and four counties in the southwest, generally along the Columbia River. We did not analyze the forested lands on the west slopes of the Cascade Range or on the Olympic Peninsula because roadless area protection would represent, at most, one to two tenths of one percent of the regional timber supply. Such small timber supply reductions would have almost no measurable economic effect at the community level. [Chapter 1]

The bulk of this study researched three relevant factors, including, 1) the importance of logging and the forest products industry in the overall economy in Washington, 2) the relationship between past federally-mandated timber harvest reductions and the economic vitality of rural counties traditionally connected to National Forest lands, and 3) the potential impacts on those communities of protecting additional National Forest roadless areas. The study found that, based on the evidence, formerly timber-dependent communities in Washington stand to benefit far more, economically, if roadless National Forest lands in their community are left intact and protected than if these areas are opened to new roads and timber harvests.

Given the assumption that logging, and the forest products industry, are pillars in the economic foundation of many rural Washington counties, one might expect the dramatic restrictions on logging on federal lands instituted during the 1990s to protect habitat for endangered species to have crippled the economic vitality of those communities. However, such effects are not evident on the state or regional level. As federal timber harvests plummeted during the 1990s, employment actually expanded by almost 18 percent statewide. The southwestern and eastern counties saw employment grow even faster, by a fifth to a quarter. The total aggregate income received by residents, after adjusting for inflation, grew even faster, allowing real income per person to rise steadily. Population also expanded, with many counties outside the Puget Sound area leading the state. Contrary to conventional wisdom, in the southwest counties where the decline in federal harvests were the greatest, employment, population and income growth were the highest. [See Figure S1 and Table S1.]

The relationship between timber harvest and the overall economic health of Washington communities assumed to be most dependent on logging and forest products runs counter to commonly held assumptions. The following are highlights of this study’s findings:

• Despite a 93 percent decline in National Forest timber harvests and the loss of 7,300 forest products jobs statewide between 1988 and 1998, the number of people employed outside of forest products expanded by 726,000 (total employment increased 33 percent), total real income expanded by almost 50 percent, and population rose by 23 percent.
• Economic vitality was especially evident in the largely non-metropolitan counties adjacent to National Forest lands in eastern and southwestern Washington. Although 3,000 forest products jobs were lost, more than 170,000 jobs were added outside that sector. The counties adjacent to the National Forests were not driven into economic depression as a result of 70 to 90 percent declines in federal harvests. Instead, average real income, employment, and population expanded significantly.
• Even within relatively isolated areas, such as the northeastern tier of counties, there was considerable economic vitality despite the declines in federal timber harvests. Only two very small, isolated "timber dependent" towns lost population. In general, all areas gained population at rates above the national average. Some areas, such as Okanogan County, did almost as well as the state’s metropolitan areas despite the decline in federal harvests.
• The relatively high unemployment rates in many of the eastern Washington counties adjacent to National Forests cannot be attributed to the decline in federal harvests. Those counties had even higher unemployment rates at the time of peak harvests in the late 1980s. The unemployment rates in excess of the state average did not rise as federal harvests fell dramatically from these peak levels.
• While its true that average real pay is low in the eastern and southwest Washington counties adjacent to National Forests, this low pay is not the result of the decline in federal harvests. Average real pay plunged during the 1980s while federal harvests were rising to peak levels. In fact, while federal harvests fell in the 1990s, average pay stabilized or increased.
• Federal payments to local governments from revenue generated by local National Forest lands declined with federal harvests during the 1990s. This, however, did not cause an overall decline in the revenues available to local governments. Local and state economic vitality allowed local government revenues to double in the 1990s despite the reduction of the National Forest contributions.

Declines in National Forest timber harvests during the 1990s had a relatively modest impact on Washington’s "timber dependent" communities. These communities have shown impressive economic vitality, continuously generating new sources of employment and income. This has allowed them to accommodate displaced forest products workers, diversify their economies, and productively adjust to a new economic reality. [Chapter 3]

 The reasons for this include:

• Most of these roadless areas were never part of the commercial timber base. Very little harvest is planned for them.
• National Forests are the source of only a small minority of total state timber harvests, about 4 percent statewide, 10 percent in eastern Washington, and 3 percent in the southwest.
• Other sources of timber supply adjust to increases and decreases in federal timber supply, partially offsetting those federal changes.
• Forest products employment is not necessarily tied to the level of timber harvest. When timber prices are high, additional labor is employed to enhance wood fiber utilization. On the other hand, ongoing technological change tends to systematically reduce the employment associated with each million board feet (mmbf) harvested.
• Fluctuation in the demand for wood products, not timber supply, is a primary determinant of the overall level of production and employment in the timber industry.
• Local harvests do not often flow to local mills because logs are often exported or hauled hundreds of miles to be processed. As a result, any employment impact may well not be local.
• Forest products workers do not necessarily live where forest products production facilities are located. Workers are mobile and take advantage of economic opportunities in the surrounding regional economy by commuting to work.

If Washington’s remaining roadless areas are protected, the impact on National Forest timber harvests here would be very small, especially when compared to the reductions in federal harvest already experienced in the 1990s. If all of the inventoried roadless areas are put off limits to logging, the projected National Forest harvest declines over the next five years would be negligible compared with the impacts that Washington communities have already digested. [See Table S2].

Table S.2.

Protecting roadless areas would protect a wide range of forest values that would otherwise be damaged or destroyed by new roads and logging. In economic terms, there are significant benefits to protecting the remaining roadless areas. That benefit is the continuing availability, indefinitely into the future, of the irreplaceable services those roadless areas provide: sources of clean water, trees that absorb climate damaging carbon dioxide and clean our air, healthy watersheds for fish and wildlife, recreational opportunities, open space, scenic beauty, and a legacy for future generations.

It is clear that the quality of life is a critical foundation for communities to develop and maintain strong economic vitality. Just recently, a Seattle Times/NW Cable News Poll found that people in the Northwest have a very high degree of job satisfaction and affinity for living here. Those polled often cited their connection with the land, and recreational opportunities as unique qualities they valued. Because people care where they live and act on those preferences, higher quality living environments tend to attract both people and economic activity. Changes in our economy and in transportation and communication technologies are enabling individuals and businesses to locate wherever they find the high quality of life they are looking for, often in the rural, small towns formerly known for their resource extraction industries.

Protecting Washington’s remaining roadless areas protects one of the sources of the state’s ongoing economic vitality, including the economic vitality of its forested eastern and southwest counties. Roadless area protection preserves the types of recreation settings that are most scarce now and that will be even more scarce relative to demand in the future. About 80 percent of Washington’s land base is already open to motorized activity. There is no shortage of roaded landscapes in Washington. In that economic context, roadless area protection is not an economic loss, it is an integral part of Washington’s economic growth. Rather than impoverishing Washington’s National Forest counties, roadless area protection strengthens their current and future economic base and the sectors of the economy that will be the source of additional jobs and income in the future. [Chapters 1 and 4]

This study was made possible by a grant from the Wilburforce Foundation for The Wild Washington Campaign. Study analysis and data are the independent work of Thomas M. Power, Ph.D., Economics Professor, University of Montana.